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Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change | ISSN: 2157-7617 | Climate 2018 | Volume: 9
5
th
World Conference on
May 23-24, 2018 | New York, USA
Climate Change and Global Warming
Adaptation assessment for silage maize production in response to climate change in a semi-arid region
Renalda El-Samra
1
, Mutasem El-Fadel
2
, Rami Zurayk
2
, Majdi Abou Najm
2
, Ibrahim Alameddine
2
, Elie Bou-Zeid
3
, Georgiy Stenchikov
4
and
Hamza Kunhu
Bangalath
5
1
Rafik Hariri University, Lebanon
2
American University of Beirut, Lebanon
3
Princeton University, USA
4
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia
5
New York University Abu Dhabi, UAE
T
he impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on silage maize (
Zea Mays
var. Oropesa) production in a semi-
arid region was conducted for the past and the near future (2011-2050) under the conditions of two Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (4.5 and 8.5). For this purpose, outputs from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model
(HiRAM), running at 25km around the globe, were dynamically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model at a sequential resolution of 9 and 3km. Downscaling simulations covered a baseline past dry and hot year (2008)
and eight future (2011-2050) years (one year per decade per RCP) identified as the worst-case scenarios from a water resources
perspective. The resulting climate change scenarios were then used as weather input to CropSyst, a soil-plant growth simulator
and experimental data sampled during the 2004 to 2008 growing seasons were used to calibrate and validate the model. The
potential decrease in precipitation and predicted warmer air temperatures associated with an increase in CO
2
accelerated plant
phenology, reducing crop yields by an average of ~23% under RCP4.5 and ~20% under RCP8.5 in comparison with the baseline
yield of 2008. The results indicate that analysis of the implications of variations in the planting date on maize production may
be most useful for site-specific analyses of possible mitigation of the impacts of climate change through alteration of crop
management practices. The most effective planting date is the one selected based on seasonal forecasting. The selected dates
ensure the absence of frost temperatures and the occurrence of the baseline cutoff temperature of 10⁰C necessary for silage
maize sowing. Other adaptation measures can be to adopt higher-yielding and heat resistant cultivars or sowing other plants
that uses less water such as
Sorghum
and Millet and improve water conservation techniques.
Biography
Renalda El-Samra has completed her PhD in Environmental and Water Resources from the American University of Beirut. She is an Assistant Professor at Rafik
Hariri University. She has over two decades of professional experience in the Environmental Sector.
elsamrars@rhu.edu.lbRenalda El-Samra et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, Volulme: 9
DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617-C1-039