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Volume 5, Issue 3 (Suppl) J Infect Dis Ther, an open access journal
ISSN:2332-0877 Infectious Diseases 2017
August 21-23, 2017
3rd Annual Congress on
Infectious DiseasesAugust 21-23, 2017 San Francisco, USA
Socio-economic determinants of malaria transmission risk in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: A
Bayesian inference approach
Osadolor Ebhuoma, Michael Gebreslasie, Ogunsakin Ropo and Siaka Lougue
University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
Low socio-economic status (SES) has been suggested to sustain malaria transmission which in turn can propel the cycle of
poverty. Thus, a deep understanding of the SES that influences malaria risk is vital because it will guide towards creating
policy and strategies that will concurrently help combat malaria transmission, improve socio-economic conditions and
strengthen the malaria elimination campaign in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), South Africa (SA). The main purpose of this study is
to assess the relationship between SES and malaria incidence in KZN, SA, using the Bayesian inference approach. Database of
demographic/socioeconomic information and clinically confirmed malaria case data aggregated at the local municipality level
for 2011 were obtained from statistics SA and the malaria control program of KZN, SA respectively. We used the 2011 dataset
(SES and malaria incidence) for this study because it completely covered the study area. The association between SES and
malaria incidence was evaluated by employing the Bayesian multiple regression model to obtain the posterior samples via a
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology. The obtained posterior samples reveal that, significant association existed
between malaria disease and low SES such as illiteracy, unemployment, no toilet facilities and no electricity at 95% CI. Lack
of toilet facilities (OR =20.2; 95% CI = -36.82, 76.0) exhibited the strongest association with malaria disease, followed by lack
of electricity (OR=5.252; 95% CI = -52.40, 62.32). This study suggests low SES potentially sustains malaria transmission and
burden. As an implication, poverty alleviation and malaria intervention resources should be incorporated side by side into the
socioeconomic framework to attain zero malaria transmission. Therefore, the relevant policy makers and departments should
stimulate additional sustainable developmental approach that combines both improved malaria intervention resources and
socioeconomic conditions, which in turn, will help strengthen the malaria elimination goals in KZN, SA.
Biography
Osadolor Ebhuoma is a Doctoral student at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, and teaches geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing.
His research is aimed at developing spatial and temporal malaria transmission models in KZN, South Africa using malaria surveillance data, remote sensing
derived climatic/environmental variables and socioeconomic factors. The expected outcome of his research will be the identification of determinants of malaria
transmission in KwaZulu-Natal and the development of malaria forecast models and by applying time series and Bayesian models. His research interests include
spatial epidemiology, GIS and remote sensing.
Osadolor Ebhuoma et al., J Infect Dis Ther 2017, 5:3 (Suppl)
DOI: 10.4172/2332-0877-C1-026