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conferenceseries.com
11th World Congress on
March 05-07, 2018 | Paris, France
Plant Biotechnology and Agriculture
Volume 6 Advances in Crop Science and Technology
ISSN: 2329-8863 Agri World 2018
March 05-07, 2018
Complexity in the global agricultural system: Threats to human development and opportunities for science
Roberto Pasqualino
Anglia Ruskin University, UK
The complexity of the global agricultural system is a tremendous barrier to the understanding of possible consequences and
impacts of policies and business decisions on society at both global and national levels. Aiming at feeding 9 billion people by
2050, agriculture has a fundamental role for human development in providing livelihood to 40% of global population as both food
and energy supplier, and representing a key leverage for most SDGs’ achievement. At the same time agriculture is both a cause
of, and the most vulnerable economic sector to, climate change. It consumes above 70% of freshwater withdrawal globally, and is
heavily dependent on mineral resources at the cusp of global production. Continuous and cumulative environmental degradation
puts agriculture at risk of dangerous ecosystem tipping points including sea level rise, change in nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, and
most frequent and disruptive climatic shocks (i.e. extreme weather events). Aware of the long term risk to human condition on the
planet, international agreements and measures will be gradually taken at both international and national levels to coercively bring the
world within the ecosystem’s limits in the next decades. Within a complex network of trading countries, such policies might result in
economic shocks and cascade effects among countries with implication on their economic performance. A world system computer
model is being developed relying on system dynamics modeling, networks, econometric analysis and public available datasets to
model food and energy systems and trade among macro-regions and allows for testing of both climate and policy shocks to assess
their possible outcomes and risks in the medium to long term future. The final outcome is to provide policy makers with a data
transparent simulation tool to support clarity and resilience of decision making outcomes while leading on a global scale transition
towards sustainability.
Biography
Roberto Pasqualino is a System Policy and Risk Scientist at the Global Sustainability Institute and works as a Research Fellow under the Centre for the
Understanding of Sustainable Prosperity in the UK. His research interests are in global sustainability and systemic risk within financial and trade networks, mostly
looking at the interconnection between natural resources availability and financial risk. He has demonstrated a passion for global system change and his expertise
spans energy and agriculture systems modeling, supply chain management, finance and systemic inequality. His work in sustainability includes sustainable supply
chains, global system modeling based on the famous limits to growth World3 model, and agriculture systems risks and complexity.
Roberto Pasqualino, Adv Crop Sci Tech 2018, Volume 6
DOI: 10.4172/2329-8863-C1-005