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conferenceseries.com
Volume 8 Journal of Gastrointestinal & Digestive System GI Diseases 2018
July 11-12, 2018
July 11-12, 2018 Sydney, Australia
15th International Conference on
Digestive Disorders and Gastroenterology
A scoring scale for predicting intra-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis
Manuel Khelvin G Torres and Higinio T Mappala
Jose Reyes Memorial Medical Center, Philippines
Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of intra-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and to
identify significant risk factors and devise a scoring system to prognosticate patients with liver cirrhosis.
Methods: A retrospective study was conducted involving 196 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis admitted in Jose R Reyes
Memorial Medical Center during January 2011 to January 2014. Charts were reviewed and data such as age, sex, presence
of bleeding or encephalopathy and blood parameters were gathered. Predictive factors were identified by univariate and
multivariate analysis and were used to generate the scoring system. A receiver operating curve was used to generate the best
cut-off score to predict mortality.
Results: A univariate analysis revealed the female gender, cirrhosis with Child Pugh class C, hepatic encephalopathy and
creatinine has significance in predicting mortality among patients. Multivariate analysis objectified three independent
predictors of mortality: Female gender, presence of hepatic encephalopathy and increased creatinine values, when 1 and 0 were
used for the presence and absence of each factor, respectively, using a cut-off score of >1.08, based on the ROC.
Conclusion: Based on the independent predictors identified, a scoring systemwas designated to each of the significant variables
and based on the ROC curve, a cut-off score of >1.08 with sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 67%, will predict intra-hospital
mortality.
Biography
Manuel Khelvin G Torres has completed his Medical studies at the Far Eastern University, Nicanor Reyes Medical Foundation and has completed his training in
Internal Medicine in Jose R Reyes Memorial Medical Center and has subsequently became a Diplomate. He is currently doing his own private practice in the field
of Medicine and research.
Manuel Khelvin G Torres ., J Gastrointest Dig Syst 2018, Volume 8
DOI: 10.4172/2161-069X-C2-067