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Climate Change 2016
October 27-29, 2016
Volume 7, Issue 9(Suppl)
J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN: 2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
conferenceseries
.com
October 24-26, 2016 Valencia, Spain
World Conference on
Climate Change
Will extremes become the norm under future climate change?
Renalda El-Samra
1
, Elie Bou-Zeid
2
, Hamza Kunhu Bangalath
3
, Georgiy Stenchikov
3
and Mutasem El-Fadel
1
1
American University of Beirut, Lebanon
2
Princeton University, USA
3
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
H
igh resolution dynamical precipitation and temperature downscalling is conducted for the past (2008) and the near future
(2011-2050) climates under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) over a complex
topographical terrain along the eastern Mediterranean basin using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. WRF
is run at two nested resolutions of 9 and 3km, forced by the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) at a resolution of
25km. The future simulations covered eight years (one year per decade per scenario) that were judiciouslly selected based on an
anomaly score that depends on the mean annual temperature and accumulated precipitation in order to identify the worst year
per decade from a water resources perspective. Climate indices derived from daily simulated precipitation and temperature
data show significant decrease in annual precipitation (rain and snow), reaching up to 30% relative to current conditions, in
addition to changes in daily maximum summer and minimum winter temperature extremes. Seasonal variability is predicted
to increase significantly, with colder winters and warmer summer projected for the study area and with notable increases in
the annual occurrence of warm nights and heat wave events. The projected increase in extreme temperatures and reduction in
precipitation will have an adverse effect on agriculture, ecosystems, as well as human health and comfort.
Biography
Renalda El-Samra is PhD Candidate in Environmental & Water Resources Engineering at AUB. She has over two decades of professional experience in the
environmental sector.
mfadel@aub.edu.lbRenalda El-Samra et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2016, 7:9(Suppl)
http://dx.doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.C1.027