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Climate Change 2016
October 27-29, 2016
Volume 7, Issue 9(Suppl) J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN: 2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
conferenceseries .com
October 24-26, 2016 Valencia, Spain
World Conference onClimate Change
Development of uncertainty reduction method for climate change impact assessment on high dam inflow
Moon-Hwan Lee and Deg-Hyo Bae
Sejong University, South Korea
Water availability in a region is one of the most important factors to determine the quality of human life and the availability
can be changed spatially and temporally due to the impact of climate change. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of
change in water availability and appropriate water resources management measures are needed for corresponding adaptation
strategies. However, there are high uncertainties in climate change impact assessment on water resources. In this reason, the
development of technology to evaluate and reduce the uncertainties quantitatively is required. The objectives of this study are
to develop the uncertainty reduction method for climate change impact assessment and to access the uncertainties of future
projection for dam inflow in Chungju dam basin in South Korea. The 5 RCMs (HadGEM3-RA, RegCM4, MM5, WRF, and
RSM), 5 statistical post-processing methods (SPP) and 2 hydrological models (HYM) were used in this study. As results,
the RCMs with relatively lower simulation ability in past historical observation events had the higher uncertainty in future
projection results. Therefore, RCMs with lower historical simulation ability and higher uncertainty should be excluded for the
evaluation of future projections. Also, the statistical post-processing methods that cause higher uncertainty should be excluded
because these methods distort the original climate change information. Through this research, the guidelines for constituting
the modules for GCM downscaling and hydrologic model are supplied for the reliable climate change impact assessment and
the study results in the application area are provided in this study.
Biography
Moon-Hwan Lee has completed his Ph.D at the age of 33 years from Sejong University, Seoul, Korea. He is Post-doctoral researcher in Sejong University. He has
published 2 SCI papers and various Korean journal papers related to climate change and water resources area.
Moon-Hwan Lee et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2016, 7:9(Suppl)