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The single greatest cause of biodiversity loss is conversion to agricultural land for food production. This process has only
increased at a rate of about one tenth that of the growth in the human population since the green revolution due to increase
in agricultural intensity. Most of this intensification has been achieved through the use of petrochemical-derived agricultural
inputs. Since global oil production leveled off in 2005, prices of fuel, agricultural inputs and food have at least doubled, making
them increasingly out of the reach of the world?s marginal farmers. This carries with it the threat of reversing the intensification
gains of the green revolution, leading to accelerated biodiversity loss through agricultural expansion to compensate for lost
productivity. An additional impact is the threat to food security for food importing nations who also have sought to expand
their land for food production through acquisition in what has become known as the ?global land grab?. This study aims to
develop a framework for prioritising interventions to protect biodiversity under conditions of global oil constraint through
mapping the biodiversity threat due to increase in land clearing rates and producing a systems model linking the drivers of
these changes to biodiversity impacts. Initial results show the role of land acquisition and deintensification in deforestation and
indicate that prioritising by economic efficiency has the ability to discriminate between alternative interventions
Biography
Rowan Eisner (BSc computer science, Stirling, UK; masters, social planning, Queensland) is a PhD student, supervised by Clive McAlpine. Her research projects
have included application of multi-objective decision support systems to water infrastructure planning, development of a water quality metric for the Great Barrier
Reef, development of an online spatial multi-criteria analysis tool for regional land-use planning, assessment of the ecological, heritage and visitation values of
Queensland?s protected estate (Queensland government), and a process for enhancing and assessing stakeholder participation in coastal research (Coastal
Cooperative Research Centre). She has worked in Costa Rica, Laos and Uganda
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