Journal of Gastrointestinal & Digestive System
Open Access

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study is to determine the predictors of intra-hospital mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis and to identify significant risk factors and devise a scoring system to prognosticate patients with liver cirrhosis. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted involving 196 patients diagnosed with liver cirrhosis admitted in Jose R Reyes Memorial Medical Center during January 2011 to January 2014. Charts were reviewed and data such as age, sex, presence of bleeding or encephalopathy and blood parameters were gathered. Predictive factors were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis and were used to generate the scoring system. A receiver operating curve was used to generate the best cut-off score to predict mortality. Results: A univariate analysis revealed the female gender, cirrhosis with Child Pugh class C, hepatic encephalopathy and creatinine has significance in predicting mortality among patients. Multivariate analysis objectified three independent predictors of mortality: Female gender, presence of hepatic encephalopathy and increased creatinine values, when 1 and 0 were used for the presence and absence of each factor, respectively, using a cut-off score of >1.08, based on the ROC. Conclusion: Based on the independent predictors identified, a scoring system was designated to each of the significant variables and based on the ROC curve, a cut-off score of >1.08 with sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 67%, will predict intra-hospital mortality.

Biography

Manuel Khelvin G Torres has completed his Medical studies at the Far Eastern University, Nicanor Reyes Medical Foundation and has completed his training in Internal Medicine in Jose R Reyes Memorial Medical Center and has subsequently became a Diplomate. He is currently doing his own private practice in the field of Medicine and research.

E-mail: mkgt86@yahoo.com