9 / 19
Page 49
conferenceseries
.com
Volume 8
Journal of Ecosystem & Ecography
ISSN: 2157-7625
Ecology 2018
March 19-20, 2018
March 19-20, 2018 | Berlin, Germany
World Conference on Ecology
Quantifyinghistorical and future net exchanges of greenhouse gases of CO2, CH4 and N2O between
land and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia
Qianlai Zhuang
1
, Tong Yu
1
, David W Kicklighter
2
, Jerry Melillo
2
, Yongxia Cai
3
, John Reilly
3
, Andrei Sokolov
3
, Erwan Monier
3
, Andrey Sirin
3
Nadja
Tchebakova
4
, V.N. Sukachev
4
, Shamil Maksyutov
5
and
Anatoly Shvidenko
6
1
Purdue University, USA
2
The Ecosystems Center of the Marine Biological Laboratory, USA
3
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA
4
Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia
5
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
6
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria
T
he largest increase of air temperature and climate extremes have occurred in Northern Eurasia in recent decades, and are
projected to continue during this century. The changing climate will affect biogeography, land cover, and carbon sink and
source activities, which in turn, will affect how global land use evolves in the future as humans attempt to mitigate and adapt to
climate change. Regional land-use changes, however, also depend on pressures imposed by the global economy and environmental
changes. Feedbacks from future land-use change will further modify regional and global biogeochemistry and climate. This study
uses as suite of linked biogeography, biogeochemical, economic, and climate models to explore how vegetation shifts in Northern
Eurasia will influence land-use change, carbon cycling and biomass supply across the globe during the 21
st
century. We find that, at
the global scale, while more land will be allocated towards food and biofuel crops (from current 22 to 37 million km2 at the end of
the 21
st
century) due to increasing population and associated economic development, and changes of land use and vegetation shift
in northern Eurasia, under the no-policy scenario. The affected global land-use change and climate result in a global cumulative
carbon sink of 52 PgC under the no-policy scenario (where CO
2
equivalent green house gas concentrations reach870 ppmv by the
end of 21
st
century), while under the policy scenario (limits CO
2
equivalent greenhouse gas concentrations to 480ppmv by the end
of this century), the cumulative carbon is sink of 63Pg C. The global biomass supply will decrease 36 and 14 Pg under the no-
policy and policy scenarios, respectively. In the presentation, we will also discuss our analysis on N
2
O and CH
4
exchanges between
the biosphere and the atmosphere in response to the changes of land cover and climate during this century.
Figure 1.
The linkages between the economic model, the AOGCM, and the TEM are simulated as a loosely coupled system, running EPPA to produce emissions
scenarios, then the AOGCM with a reduced form version of TEM to produce climate scenarios, and then the TEM driven by climate and land use scenarios to
produce productivity impacts. EPPA is then rerun with these productivity impacts, producing new scenarios of land use change, and TEM is rerun to estimate CO2
and other trace gas impacts of the final land use scenarios.
Qianlai Zhuang et al., J Ecosyst Ecography 2018, Volume 8
DOI: 10.4172/2157-7625-C1-032