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.com
Volume 8, Issue 9 (Suppl)
J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN: 2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
Climate Congress 2017
October 16-17, 2017
October 16-17, 2017 Dubai, UAE
3
rd
World Congress on
Climate Change and Global Warming
J Earth Sci Clim Change 2017, 8:9 (Suppl)
DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617-C1-034
When does climate shift emerge in the future beyond the historical variability of precipitation?
Shoji Kusunoki
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan
T
he climate model MRI-CGCM3 has relatively high horizontal resolution atmosphere among the coupled models which
participated in the phases 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We used precipitation of pre-
industrial control simulation for 100 years, historical experiment from 1850 to 2005 for 156 years and future Representative
Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 scenario experiment from 2006 to 2100 for 96 years simulated by the MRI-CGCM3. We
defined 'tipping year' after year 2006 as the time of year when the projected 10-year mean climate of at each grid point moves
to a state continuously outside the range of historical variability before year 2006. Tipping years of annual precipitation are
earlier in high latitudes and central tropical Pacific where the increase of precipitation in the end of 21
st
century is large. In
contrast, tipping year does not exist over subtropical high regions where precipitation decreases in the end of 21
st
century.
Tipping year of intense precipitation exist globally including subtropical high regions. Over the Arabian Peninsula, tipping
years of precipitation appears after 2050's. Information on the reliability of future projections is usually evaluated by ensemble
simulations. However, future projection by the MRI-CGCM3 was restricted to only one realization due to the limitation of
computer resources. Instead of real ensemble simulations, we created the set of virtual future projections based on the Monte
Carlo method considering the natural variability of model atmosphere in the pre-industrial control simulation and future
simulation. Here we proposed two kinds of measures for reliability in future projection; the standard deviation of precipitation
and the probability of emergence of tipping year.
skusunok@mri-jma.go.jp