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Volume 2 Environment Pollution and Climate Change
ISSN: 2573-458X Climate Change 2018 &
Global ENVITOX 2018
October 04-06, 2018
October 04-06, 2018
London, UK
16th Annual Meeting on
Environmental Toxicology and Biological Systems
&
5th World Conference on Climate Change
JOINT EVENT
Climate warming shifts Indian monsoon season: Evidence from observation
Elena Surovyatkina
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Statement of the Problem: The Indian summer monsoon is the season of rain. The economy of India can maintain its GDP
in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even two weeks, it can spell disaster because of the
high population depending on agriculture—70% of its people are directly related to farming. In Central India, the variability
of monsoon is quite high due to local changes such as rapid urbanization and industrialization. The forecasting of climate
phenomena on a seasonal scale is a challenge, mostly because there is no recent historical precedent for such change in the
climate system.
Methodology &Theoretical Orientation: We forecasted monsoon using our recently developed methodology, which is based
on the theory of critical transitions. Our predictions rely on observations of near-surface air temperature and relative humidity
from both the ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses. We performed our forecasts for the onset and withdrawal of monsoon
for the Central part of India.
Findings: It was revealed that climate change affects the Indian summer monsoon in two aspects: in the last decade, the
intensity of monsoon rainfalls in the Central part of India has increased, and the onset and withdrawal of the monsoon
have been delayed. This is due to an increase in spring temperatures and a slower cooling in autumn that is linked to global
warming. The novel approach allows accounting climate change effects and predicting the monsoon onset and withdrawal
dates for 40 and 70 days in advance, respectively. The results show that our method allows predicting the monsoon not only
retrospectively, but also in the future: in 2016 and 2017 both of our forecasts were successful. Hence, we proved that such early
prediction of the monsoon timing is possible even under the conditions of climate change.
Recent Publications
1. Tony J, Subarna S, Syamkumar K S, Sudha G, Akshay S, et al. (2017)
Experimental investigation on preconditioned rate induced tipping in a
thermoacoustic system. Scientific Reports–Nature 7(1):5414.
2. Stolbova V, Surovyatkina E, Bookhagen B and Kurths J (2016) Tipping
elements of the Indian monsoon: prediction of onset and withdrawal.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 43:1–9.
3. Apala Majumdar, John Ockendon, Peter Howell and Elena Surovyatkina
(2013) Transitions through critical temperatures in nematic liquid
crystals. Phys. Rev. E. 88: 022501.
4. Surovyatkina E D , Kravtsov Yu A and Kurths J (2005) Fluctuation growth and saturation in nonlinear oscillator on the
threshold of bifurcation of spontaneous symmetry breaking. Phys. Rev. E 72:046125.
5. Surovyatkina E D (2004) Phenomenon of prebifurcation rise and saturation of the correlation time. Physics Letters A
329(3):169–172.
Biography
Elena Surovyatkina has her expertise in Theoretical Physics in the field of Theory of Critical Phenomena. She has contributed to the understanding of critical
transitions with the new theory of nonlinear pre-bifurcation noise amplification and rate-depended phenomena. She discovered a new phenomenon of overcooling
and overheating of critical temperatures in liquid crystals. Currently, her research is devoted to the spatially organized critical transitions in climate. The most
significant contribution in climate dynamics is a new methodology of the earliest forecast of the Indian summer monsoon.
Elena Surovyatkina, Environ Pollut Climate Change 2018, Volume 2
DOI: 10.4172/2573-458X-C1-002