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conferenceseries
.com
Volume 8, Issue 10 (Suppl)
J Earth Sci Clim Change, an open access
ISSN: 2157-7617
Climate Change 2017
October 19-21, 2017
CLIMATE CHANGE
October 19-21, 2017 | Rome, Italy
4
th
World Conference on
Potential effect of drought on winter wheat yield using CERES-Wheat model under RCP8.5 Scenario
over the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain
Qin Liu
and
Hui Ju
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China
Statement of the Problem:
Droughts and water shortage are generally accepted to be one of the most critical problems faced
by worldwide agriculture, and it is so especially in China where agricultural production and prosperity are largely dependent
on the timely, adequate and proper distribution of rainfall. The analysis of potential effect of climatic drought on grain yield is
becoming very critical in light of population growth, food security and increasing pressure on water resources. However, there
is limited understanding of the spatio-temporal variation inpotential evapotranspiration (ET0) and climatic drought and its
effect on grain yield of winter wheat in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain (3H Plain) in which there is an over-exploitation of groundwater
region.
Methodology & Theoretical Orientation
:we used Penman-Monteith formula, SPEI-PM method, DSSAT-CERES-Wheat
model and RCP 8.5 data to explore the characteristics in ET0, climatic droughtand yield reduction rate for winter wheat in
response to climate change over the 3H Plain.
Findings:
Our work demonstrated the investigation that an increase of ET0 was predicted leading to subsequent drought rise
in frequency, duration, severity and intensity under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Annual future ET0 is most sensitive to RH changes
and accordingly RS is responsible for the predicted increment of the annual ET0. Analysis of yield reduction rate by drought
in different growing period shows that wheat yield decline most in drought of jointing stage, followed by grain filling stage.
Irrigation in the jointing stage (60mm) could retrieve yield by 16.3% (short-term) 18.6% (medium-term) and 16.6% (long-
term).
Conclusion & Significance
:In our work, major agronomic consequences have been drawn regarding the reform of the
common agricultural policy in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China. Researchers are encouraged to further investigations into how
to implement these practices with emphasis of improving the sustainability of these agroecosystems.
Biography
Qin Liu obtained his PhD in 2017 from University of Liege at Belgim. He worked as a Research Scientist at Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development
in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, China. Qin Liu has his expertise in evaluation and passion in climate change and agricultural water
resource management based on spatial analysis and crop modelling. He has published more than 30 papers in referred journals and had served as an Editor of
Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology.
liuqin02@caas.cnQin Liu et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2017, 8:10(Suppl)
DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617-C1-036