climate-change-2016_scientifictracks-abstracts

94 / 96

Notes:
Page 161
Climate Change 2016
October 27-29, 2016
Volume 7, Issue 9(Suppl) J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN: 2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
conferenceseries .com
October 24-26, 2016 Valencia, Spain
World Conference onClimate Change
Cost-risk trade-off of solar radiation management and mitigation-considering regional disparities
under long-tailed climate sensitivity probability density distributions
Elnaz Roshan, Mohammad Mohammadi Khabbazan and Hermann Held
University of Hamburg, Germany
S olar radiation management (SRM) might be able to alleviate the anthropogenic global mean temperature rise but unable to
do so for other climate variables such as precipitation, particularly with respect to regional disparities. Here we evaluate the
optimal trade-off between SRM and mitigation by applying cost-risk analysis (CRA) with the probabilistic knowledge about
climate sensitivity density distribution. CRA trades off the expected welfare-loss from climate policies costs against the climate
risks from overshooting an environmental target. Using the spatial resolution of ‘Giorgi regions’, we generalize CRA in order
to represent the regional precipitation risks as a prominent side-effect of SRM. We introduce three scenarios, considering
alternative relative weights of risks: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks scenarios.
Our results suggest that, by considering regional precipitation risks in optimization, SRM in conjunction with mitigation
would only save about a half of welfare-loss (in terms of BGE) compared to mitigation-only analysis. In temperature-risk-only
scenario, perfect compliance with 2°C-temperature target is achieved while a very high precipitation risk in half of the regions
is demonstrated. In precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios, temperature is complied with its threshold for about 95%
of all numerical representative climate sensitivities in 2100. However, expected regional precipitation risk would increase at
least in four regions compared to mitigation- only portfolio.
Biography
Elnaz Roshan is a Doctoral candidate in Economics at University of Hamburg and at International Max Planck Research School in Earth System Modeling. She
started her PhD in August 2014 and this work is a part of her Doctoral research.
Elnaz Roshan et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2016, 7:9(Suppl)