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Climate Change 2016
October 27-29, 2016
Volume 7, Issue 9(Suppl) J Earth Sci Clim Change
ISSN: 2157-7617 JESCC, an open access journal
conferenceseries .com
October 24-26, 2016 Valencia, Spain
World Conference onClimate Change
A case study on determining real-time landslide early warning level by sequentially applying ERI and
infiltration-slope stability coupled model
Deuk-hwan Lee, Seung-Rae Lee and Joon-Young Park
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea
With the increasing magnitude and number of extreme precipitation events resulting from global climate change, the scale
of rainfall-induced landslides and consequent damages has been remarkably enlarged in Korea since the beginning
of 21st century. There have been few studies to constitute the landslide early warning framework by sequentially applying
an empirical rainfall threshold and a physically-based slope stability model. This research introduces a concept of real-time
landslide early warning scheme capable of upgrading up to two higher warning levels by applying two precidictive models
of different approaches in consecutive order. A specific area of ‘normal’ state is upgraded to a higher warning level if the
predicted or actual rainfall exceeds Extreme Rainfall Index threshold, which has been previously developed to conduct a
landslide temporal probabilistic assessment. This empirical semi-rainfall threshold considers soil properties (permeability and
storage capacity) as well as the rainfall factors in order to incorporate the effect of spatial variation of the infiltration capacity
on the landslide probability. Subsequently, the area can be updated to the highest warning level of the suggested scheme as the
factor of safety decreases below 1.3, which is calculated by a coupled model connecting different but sequential processes of
slope failure; infiltration and slope stability. The study tested the validity of the landslide early warning scheme for a broad-scale
by applying it for several past rainfall events and corresponding landslide historical data which had occurred in Busan, the
second largest metropolitan city in Korea.
Biography
Deuk-hwan Lee is currently working at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Republic of Korea. Deuk-hwan Lee research interests are global
climate change, Air Quality, Atmospheric Science and Rainfall Index threshold etc.
Deuk-hwan Lee et al., J Earth Sci Clim Change 2016, 7:9(Suppl)