Abstract

Background: Malaria is a disease caused by protozoan parasites of the genus Plasmodium and transmitted by the bite of infected female anopheles mosquitoes. Temperature have influential role for malaria transmission. This study was done to see the correlation between positive malaria cases and temperature. Objective: To assess the correlation between positive malaria cases and temperature. Methods: Time series analysis was conducted by using ten years monthly temperature and malaria cases. Simple linear regression and correlation were applied to analyze Correlation between temperature and malaria case by using SPSS version 16.0. Results: Within ten years, malaria transmission was observed throughout the year. Both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax found in the district. Spearman correlation analysis showed that monthly minimum temperature (p=0.034) at one month lag significantly correlated with total positive malaria cases but maximum temperature (p=-0.020) negatively related with total malaria cases. Simple linear regression analysis suggested that monthly maximum temperature (p=0.039) significant factors. Conclusions: From the time series analysis malaria transmission was not periodic. Temperature has association with malaria cases and may effect on the same or next month malaria cases occurrence. The responsible bodies should use temperature for predicting malaria transmission.

Keywords: Temperature; Malaria; Correlation; Plasmodium species; One month lag; Time series