Abstract

This study was undertaken to analyze historical climate variability and quantify its impacts on rice production in the Ping River Basin, Northern Thailand. Catchment based climate gradient trend showed Upper Ping received the highest rainfall followed by Lower Ping and Middle Ping, respectively. Temperature and evaporation increased with decreasing altitude. The Ping climate exhibited high spatiotemporal variability. Temperature had an increasing trend but no significant trend in rainfall during the period of 1961-2010. Multiple regression models significantly explained 54% (P<0.01) rice yield, 43% (P<0.01) total production, and 47% (P=0.01) rice area temporal variation by climatic factors variability in Ping Basin, respectively. A critical impact assessment of climate variability on rice production showed that highest yield gap of 48%, planted area loss as high as of 55% and yield loss of 32% were observed. These losses in planted area and productivity are of paramount importance from food security perspective opting appropriate adaptation strategy at basin level. Planting of rice could be done Mid May to end of May in Upper and Middle Ping catchments while end of May to first week of June in Lower Ping without waiting until Mid-June and early July. Our findings indicate that there is a need to modify rice crop calendar that would ensure farmers to obtain better yield. This proposed adjustment of crop calendar will encourage farmers to plant early in May and harvest in September to avoid risk of flooding in October as an adaptation strategy in the face of prevailing climate variability.

Keywords: Climate variability; Climate parameters; Crop calendar; Ping river basin; Rice production; Thailand; Trend