Abstract

In this work, a mathematical mannequin for describing diphtheria transmission in Thailand is proposed. Based on the direction of diphtheria infection, the populace is divided into eight epidemiological classes, namely, susceptible, symptomatic infectious, asymptomatic infectious, service with full natural-acquired immunity, service with partial natural-acquired immunity, person with full vaccine-induced immunity, and character with partial vaccine-induced immunity. Parameter values in the mannequin had been both without delay acquired from the literature, estimated from accessible data, or estimated by means of potential of sensitivity analysis. Numerical options exhibit that our mannequin can effectively describe the lowering fashion of diphtheria instances in Thailand all through the years 1977–2014. Furthermore, notwithstanding Thailand having excessive DTP vaccine coverage, our mannequin predicts that there will be diphtheria outbreaks after the yr 2014 due to waning immunity.

Keywords: Fully liquid vaccine; Health care professional; Instrument development