Abstract

Climate change is considered to be one of the most significant challenges to global biodiversity in the 21st century and remains the greatest challenge to biodiversity conservation in the future. Consequently, understanding the effects of climate change on biodiversity can enhance conservation efforts. The use of niche modeling to predict changes in the suitable distribution of species under climate change scenarios is becoming a hot topic of biological conservation. Thus, this study investigated the impacts of climate changes on the distribution of Aloe Vera species of concern in Ethiopia. Occurrence data were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF; www.gbif.org/ (1 March 2021)) and specimen collection of the Ethiopian biodiversity institute. Maxent models were used to predict the potential suitable distribution of the Aloe Vera species under different climate change scenarios in the present day (the 2020s) 2050s and 2070s in Ethiopia. In the modeling process, the Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to choose the best combination of feature type and regularization multiplier. Variables relating to temperature and precipitation were more important variables in predicting Aloe Vera species distribution in the optimal model. The predicted suitable distribution areas of Aloe Vera were different for the different periods under different climate change scenarios. The suitable distribution area is predicted to become more fragmented in the future. Results reveal the climate conditions suffer the distribution of Aloe Vera in Ethiopia and the likely changes to its distribution pattern in the future and Aloe Vera are under great threat of extinction from climate changes, providing a scientific basis for the sustainable management, protection, and restoration of the suitable habitat of this economically important vegetation in the context of changing climate condition. Therefore, increased forest protection to prevent further forest cover losses will be key for the Aloe Vera species conservation.

Keywords: Ethiopia; Suitability; Aloe Vera; Maxent; Environmental variable; Climate scenario