Abstract

The influence of rainfall fluctuations on elephant density had not being fully studied in Sengwa Wildlife Research Area (SWRA) yet its impact can be devastating. To explore the potential influence of rainfall fluctuations on elephant density, the study sort to determine how annual rainfall fluctuations influence elephant density at a local scale. The study used annual rainfall from 1965/1966 to 2019/2020 to determine if rainfall fluctuations had influence on elephant density.Secondary data on annual rainfall and elephant density was extracted from station records and summarized in Excel 2013. Pearson Correlation analysis between rainfall and elephant density was performed in MINITAB-17. Trend in elephant density over the study period indicated a significant increase (r2 = 0.1508 where y=0.0123x +1.2368). Annual rainfall from 1965/1966 to 2019/2020 showed a decrease over time (r2 =0.1054 and y =-3.8887x + 721.43). Pearson correlation indicated a weak negative relationship (where y –0.0285x + 601.7, R2 0.1 and p< 0.05) between rainfall fluctuations and elephant density. The null hypothesis (r = 0) was rejected and concluded that rainfall fluctuations does not have an impact on elephant density in SWRA. The study recommends investigation into potential effects of annual rainfall fluctuations on other large herbivore dynamics across Sebungwe landscape.