Abstract

Evaluation of drought risk in North Central Nigeria was carried out in this study using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Analysis of rainfall variability was carried out using ANOVA from rainfall data collected from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Abuja for all the six states that constitute the study area. In a bid to evaluate the risk of drought in each of the meteorological stations, the rainfall data was used to compute SPI 12-month time scale which is ideal for meteorological drought in all the stations. The SPI results were further subjected to Mann-Kendal and Sen’s slope analysis for trends detection. The SPI model was effective in evaluating the risk of meteorological drought as the values were from near normal to severe droughts in plateau and Niger states. The paper concluded that seasonal and annual rainfall variation account for the vulnerability of the region to the risk of meteorological drought. The study recommends SPI weather base index insurance, development of early warning, implementation of long-term adaptation strategies and increase drought awareness among others as part of mitigation strategies against its impact on water resources and the rainfall dependent agriculture in the region.

Keywords: Drought; Rainfall; Evaluation; Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); Mann kendall; Sen’s slope