Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases pose a significant threat to global health, as they can rapidly spread and cause severe illness or even death. Understanding the factors that contribute to their transmission is crucial for effective prevention and control strategies. In particular, the infection rate and identification of infection sources play pivotal roles in managing and containing these outbreaks. This article explores the significance of infection rate and infection sources in the transmission of emerging infectious diseases.

There are many prevention and control measures for emerging infectious diseases. This paper divides the effects of these measures into two categories. One is to reduce the infection rate. The other is to use diagnosis rate to reflect the decreases of the infection source. The impacts of measures intensity, diagnosis rate, and the start time of taking measures on emerging infectious diseases with infectious capacity during the incubation period are considered comprehensively by using a differential equation model. Results show that for each diagnosis rate, the number of infections and deaths has a phase change structure with respect to the measures intensity. If the measures intensity is less than the value of the phase change point, the epidemic will break out whenever measures are taken.