Abstract

New areas may become suitable outside the current geographic range but much of these areas is far from the current giant panda range and only 15% fall within the current protected area system. Long-term survival of giant pandas will require the creation of new protected areas that are likely to support suitable habitat even if the climate changes. We integrated giant panda habitat information with general climate models to predict future geographic distribution and fragmentation of giant panda habitat. Giant pandas have been allowed to persist only at elevations higher than land that can be used for productive agriculture. However, as the agricultural value of land in current panda habitat increases under a changing climate, activities like growing crops and grazing livestock may further encroach on their habitat. Torrential rains or dense mist throughout the year characterizes these forests, often shrouded in heavy clouds.