Journal of Bioterrorism & Biodefense
Open Access

Risk assessment; Arbaeen; Covid-19; Mass gathering

Introduction

Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors like the rise within the variety of latest cases of COVID-19, the likelihood of exposure to a replacement variant of COVID-19, the likelihood of arrival of a replacement variant of COVID-19 to the country, the likelihood of accelerating referrals to tending facilities (score 16), the likelihood of obtaining metabolic process diseases, and therefore the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red space of the matrix and were found to possess the best risk (unbearable risk), that desires immediate action.

The World Health Organization (WHO) defines mass gatherings because the gathering of an explicit variety of individuals in a very specific place, for a selected purpose in a very specific amount, so communities want additional effort and double coming up with and action to produce services and responses. Arbaeen could be a ceremony command annually in Iraq with the participation of 17–20 million individuals from several countries of the globe, and therefore the resort is in Iraq for regarding time period. Pilgrims from completely different countries like Islamic Republic of Iran, India, Pakistan, Islamic State of Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijani Republic, Turkey, Lebanon, Kuwait, Bahrain, Asian country, etc. area unit gift during this ceremony, and that they walk to the town of Kerbala, south of capital of Iraq, to collect at the tip of the 40-days following Ashura, for the commemoration of the martyrdom of the third Shiite Muslim, Hossein ibn Ali's. The mourning ceremony of Arbaeen is that the world's largest public mass gathering [1,3].

In Arbaeen, because of the massive population of pilgrims' journey and Variability of the time of the ceremony, public health managers should be ready to manage the surplus pressures on the country's health system. On the opposite hand, making certain the security and health of the participants during this event is one among the foremost vital parameters in undefeated mass gatherings management. during this style of ceremony, that participants attend from completely different nations, regions, and cultures, the exposure, occurrence, and unfold of infectious diseases is incredibly vital and varies counting on the kind and site of mass gathering. Individuals attending the Arbaeen event could also be vulnerable by communicable diseases like water & food borne diseases, injuries, terrorism, and terrorism, additionally, non- communicable diseases and accidents area unit worrying.

Covid-19 pandemic that has started in Gregorian calendar month 2019 spreads speedily through metabolic process droplets in closed environments, so holding the mass gathering will strengthen the transfer of Covid-19 and puts additional pressure on the health care system of nations. On the opposite hand, participants within the Arbaeen ceremony might not believe the health risks of this ceremony. Therefore, the mass gathering of Arbaeen and its connected effects is taken into account a significant threat to health, and ignoring this issue will have unfortunate health consequences, and it's necessary to require readiness measures to manage and management infectious diseases like Covid-19. Since understanding the risks related to mass gatherings is that the opening in political and coming up with for public health managers, it's necessary to contemplate the potential risks before the ceremony in line with the kind of ceremony, the amount of participants, time, and place, thus the chance reduction is feasible through effective [4,5].

Discussion

Risk assessment could be a systematic method for assembling, evaluating, and documenting data to work out the amount of risk that gives a basis for managing and mitigating the negative consequences of acute public health hazards. Supported the chance assessment, preventive intervention will be planned and ensured the specified infrastructure is in situ to regulate potential issues. This study was designed to risk assessment within the Arbaeen ceremony of 2021, with the stress on COVID-19 and verify priority risks and interventions within the Iranian health system.

In our study, the hazard is holding Arbaeen ceremony throughout the Covid-19 pandemic, to work out the vulnerability and exposure, national documents and reports from the start of the epidemic within the country through the system of emergency operations centers within the Ministry of Health, patient registration system within the Ministry of Health (MCMC1), daily reports from the medical specialty Committee of Ministry of Health, and therefore the approvals of Coronavirus national committee were studied. Accessible knowledge enclosed the amount of cases, deaths, recovered ones, the quantitative relation of death to the full variety of patients, and demographic characteristics. To predict the quantity of exposure, we would have liked foresight situations were expected for holding the ceremony: a state of affairs with a restricted population (less than five hundred thousand people), a state of affairs with a medium population (Between five hundred thousand and a meg people), and a state of affairs with the participation of quite a meg pilgrims.

The present study was conducted to develop a comprehensive risk management program within the coincidence scenario of Covid-19 and Arbaeen mass gathering supported risk assessment. The results of this study showed that “the increase within the variety of latest cases of COVID-19”, “the likelihood of exposure to a replacement variant of COVID-19”, “the likelihood of arrival of a replacement variant of COVID-19 to the country”, “the likelihood of accelerating referrals to tending facilities”, “the likelihood of obtaining metabolic process diseases”, and “the setting contamination” gained the best scores within the risk matrix and need immediate interventions. Another study conducted in Islamic Republic of Iran to assess the chance of Covid-19 within the health system showed that environmental and individual contamination, still as burnout of health care staff, area unit among the best scores within the risk matrix. Therefore, the results of the study, just like the gift study, emphasize the setting contamination and therefore the likelihood of accelerating the incidence of the malady [6,7].

Because Covid-19 is Associate in Nursing disease and is spreading speedily in countries, the United Nations agency has adopted a method to scale back and stop the transmission, stop the unfold of the malady, and delay its spread”. The results of studies have shown that mass gatherings and spiritual touristry will offer the potential for the unfold of infections in borders and at intervals communities and make important risks to public health, therefore canceling or delay in holding mass gatherings is incredibly vital to scale back this pandemic. On the opposite hand, mass gatherings with a spiritual background will have an effect on the psychological state of the many individuals, encourage healthy behaviors, and have several social and economic effects on society. Therefore, any country that wishes to carry large-scale non secular mass gatherings ought to be ready to implement adequate preventive measures considering the country's conditions in terms of the severity of malady transmission.

The results of the chance assessment of Arbaeen ceremony throughout the Covid-19 pandemic showed that holding the ceremony within the variety of a caravan and utterly controlled and with relevance health protocols will scale back the chance of malady. On the opposite hand, restricted resources and instrumentation, fatigue, and burnout of workforce have created conditions for health systems that holding ceremonies in a very restricted and controlled manner will scale back the chance of accelerating in new cases and demand for receiving health services, and might stop the rise of the burden of malady on health systems. Therefore, in line with alternative studies, the results of the current study emphasize preventive measures taken by health systems like provide and distribution of COVID-19 diagnostic tests, necessary submission of negative PCR take a look at results, the requirement for vaccination, and continuous observance of pilgrims in terms of obtaining COVID-19.

The results of the chance assessment during this study showed that the “the likelihood of obtaining metabolic process diseases” in Arbaeen ceremony is one among the foremost vital risks as a result of, during this ceremony and alternative non secular mass gatherings, pilgrims from completely different countries participate and during this scenario, the prevalence of metabolic process diseases and therefore the risk of transmission of those diseases area unit enlarged once the ceremony thus these events will cause the economic process of metabolic process diseases. the chance of obtaining metabolic process infections, together with COVID-19 in these events, need compliance with health needs, the applying of bound restrictions, and therefore the dodging of some non-secular customs [8].

In this regard, it's necessary to stress personal and environmental health through access to face masks, soap and water, and laundry and medical care of hands and surfaces. Also, playing some non-secular customs like shaking hands once prayers, touching and hugging holy places in shrines, laundry graves by hands, victimisation common prayer tools like Mohr, Beads, Mat, and praying head covering, and distributing food as charity ought to be abolished. Commonplace hygiene measures depend upon accessible resources and the way protecting instrumentation is employed, therefore, health education area unit vital. Therefore, instructional coming up with in concert of the vital programs of the readiness section ought to be done before holding the Arbaeen ceremony, taking into consideration the academic content and target teams during this regard, the results of this study showed that In line with the principles of risk communication, the coaching ought to be graspable to the audience to be discovered its impact on people's behavior. Differently to encourage individuals to suits health needs is to use the capability of spiritual leaders. Non secular missionaries in line with their mission will strengthen people's morale, manage stress and promote adherence to hygienical principles by making hope, inner peace and increasing acceptance.

The results of the study showed that environmental contamination because of improper assortment and disposal of waste and poor condition of bogs is one among the general public health risks in mass gatherings. For this purpose, it's necessary to develop health protocols and guides for the health of pilgrims that specialised in environmental health needs in food distribution places and resting places, medical care of places and surfaces exposed to pilgrims, healthful disposal of waste to be thought of by environmental health specialists and supervisors. Natural and correct ventilation of the shrines, resorts and food distribution areas, and bogs by gap windows, doors, and entrances of areas, and attending to observe physical distancing in these places area unit alternative vital problems that ought to be thought of supported the results of the chance assessment in gift study, the likelihood of obtaining water- & food-borne diseases is another connected risk in holding the Arbaeen ceremony throughout the Covid19 pandemic [9,10].

Conclusion

The results of studies have shown that the security and health of food, drink, and water area unit vital public health challenges within the Arbaeen ceremony. as a result of during this reasonably ceremony, the preparation, distribution, and consumption of water and food area unit typically done incorrectly and unhealthily which ends in increasing the chance of spreading diseases. Therefore, the health system should conceive to deploy health groups and increase website visits of camps resorts, and change of state places, and distribution of food and water, waste disposal to confirm that health protocols area unit followed utterly. Also, detection, isolation, and referral of suspicious cases to medical centers and follow them up should be thought of by health care groups. Border management and police investigation is another purpose that has to be thought of for observance and characteristic suspected cases of Covid19 and preventing them from coming into the country. Therefore, it's necessary to ascertain quarantine and isolation centers, mobile hospitals, and border health centers to accommodate, accept, and supply services to patients and folks with suspected metabolic process diseases in border provinces.

Acknowledgement

I would like to thank my professor for his support and encouragement.

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

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